Half of VMware users plan to reduce their use of the virtualisation pioneer’s products by 2028, according to a survey by independent analyst firm Virtified.

Virtified principal Michael Warrilow, a former Gartner analyst specialising in cloud and virtualisation, said VMware users are uncomfortable with Broadcom’s strategy of only selling a complete private cloud bundle – Cloud Foundation 9 (VCF 9).

Some users feel the cost of VCF 9 is beyond their means, Warrilow said. Others don’t want all the tools in Cloud Foundation, or the complexity of operating them. Users with those issues will therefore assess their virtual machine fleet and move some to another platform.

The analyst said many migrations are already under way, but believes not all will result in smaller Broadcom bills. Warrilow said he’s heard that when Broadcom gets a whiff of customers down-sizing their VMware estates, it offers less generous discounts – or no discount at all.

Bills may also stay high because migrating away from VMware before the October 2027 end-of-support date for its version 8.x products will be hard to achieve. Warrilow expects many users will therefore find themselves needing to reluctantly acquire VCF 9 to stay compliant.

Others will wait it out past that date, to align a move to a different virtualisation platform with a hardware refresh. Those who choose to continue with unsupported software will likely face a license audit that, if it shows a user will need more entitlements, sees Broadcom offer software at list price or minimal discount.

“Broadcom is hoping this all goes in the too hard basket and you do the upgrade,” he said.

Warrilow said those who don’t plan to reduce their VMware estate may have reached that decision due to various factors that prevent an easy or economical migration. He said lack of suitable VMware alternatives, an inability to move to the cloud, and low risk appetite are among the reasons that some users decide to stay put.

He also thinks those who stick with VMware may well enjoy the experience.

“There is the chance to get greater density and lower license costs,” he said. “And it is possible the engineering of the product will get better. There’s a lot less bickering in the Broadcom era, and potential for a more unified product.”

“But right now VCF 9 includes stuff that people didn’t want unified.”

Warrilow’s findings are drawn from a survey he conducted – using the same market research company he used while at Gartner – that surveyed 450 VMware users across 14 countries. Respondents came from the ranks of operations, infrastructure, architecture, and procurement teams, at companies with over 500 employees. The analyst has also prepared documents he calls “Loops,” that assess the main VMware alternatives.

Like other analysts, he rates VMware as the market leader, but feels Nutanix, Microsoft, and Red Hat are closing the gap.